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Posted by / 25-Dec-2019 22:09

For example, one individual indicator would be the industrial production index for wood products, from which the Bry-Boschan procedure delivers peak and trough dates for the business cycle in wood products.

The figure below summarizes Stock and Watson’s findings.

The group within the NBER that determines the length of recessions made news this week.

The NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee released a statement saying that it was unable to declare the end of the recession.

But the surprising finding is how little difference there is among the three dating procedures.To call the end of the recession now would necessitate a strong degree of certainty that economic growth will continue on its current trajectory even if the factors that have created that growth (mainly government spending) will necessarily need to change.Some investors may be willing to dismiss these differences of opinion between the members of the recession dating committee as nothing more than a spat between economic historians and unimportant to where the markets are heading.Each of the 270 indicators corresponds to a row on the graph, and time (running from 1959: M1 to 2009: M7) is on the horizontal axis.Red indicates that, after taking into account the possibility of measurement error, there is a very high probability that that series at that date would be characterized as part of a business downturn.

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