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That argues, in the judgment of Bostrom and others, for prioritizing efforts to prevent human extinction above other endeavors.

If the latter’s true, it’s not a smart donation; if you multiply the odds by 10^52, you’ve saved an expected 0.0000000000001 lives, which is pretty miserable.80,000 Hours tried their best to figure out how many QALYs doctors save per year, but this is obviously a really difficult question and for all we know they could be off by an order of magnitude. They could be off by a figure of ten times, twenty times, even fifty times and it wouldn’t affect their argument.I’ve gone over their numbers with them and it’s really, really, really hard to remotely believably make the “number of QALYs saved per doctor” figure come out high enough to challenge the earning-to-give route.He intuitively thinks that x-risk charities can’t be that great compared to fighting global poverty or whatever other good cause.He (very virtuously) decides to double-check that assumption with numbers, even if he has to make up the numbers himself.

The chance of winning the Powerball is 10^-8 so winning it twice in a row is 10^-16. On the other hand, Matthews thinks it’s perfectly reasonable to throw out numbers like 10^-66 when talking about the effect of x-risk donations.